> IMHO/ $.02 worth
>
> "risk" is what the insurance companies are betting against, and in my frame
> of reference is a measure of probability and loss. "High risk" can be
> either low probability of loss combined with high cost if you do lose, or
> low cost of loss with a high probability that a loss will occur. To
> minimize risk, you minimize *both* the probability of loss and the cost if
> the loss occurs.
>
> You keep your boat in seaworth condition and tow a dinghy. You keep the
> dinghy in seaworth condition and wear a PFD. You keep the PFD in seaworth
> condition and attach a packet of shark repellant to it. (You attach a
> bottle of tabasco to the shark repellant package <G>). For each possible
> failure you minimize the probability, and provide a loss-preventive escape
> if the failure does in fact happen.
>
> That said, if we compare flying, climbing, and sailing, it seems to me that
> the "safest" activity is that one for which we can establish the longest
> chain of event-backup pairs. This depends on the physical situation
> surrounding the activity and on our knowledge of the risks, probabilities,
> and backups to be considered. That's why training works.
>
> Over
>
> -- dwf
Well said, Dennis. Since all backups are not inherent to normal
activities (e.g., a life raft must be inflated, ...) I have a sneaking
suspicion the slower moving activity would have a slight edge if all
else were equal: more time to respond.
OK, next, let's do this from an MTBF and MTTR perspective (just
kidding!!!! This horse is suffering from a high probability of loss).
Regards,
Bill Combs
WWP 19 #439 (Aug 1987)
"Ursa Minor"
Fort Walton Beach FL
ttursine@gnt.net