RE: Low Tech (knotmeters in particular)

Gordon (hlg@pacbell.net)
Tue, 24 Nov 1998 15:23:08 -0800


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West Wight Potter Website at URL
http://www.lesbois.com/wwpotter/
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Ernie Gann's book, _Fate is the Hunter_, had a similar theme: Flying
accidents happen when little problems combine to create a major
overwhelming problem. Ganns's meaning was more fatalistic; he seemed to be
saying accidents will sometimes happen no matter how good the pilot is. But
my interpretation is that the more things we can do to keep the odds in our
favor (more points in the black box), the better we can cope with our
errors and conditions beyond our control. I've made a lot of stupid errors
in planes, cars, and boats, but have survived so far, partly from luck
(fate) but also because I had done enough other things correctly that I
still had a margin for error.

Harry Gordon
P14 #234, Manatee
Mountain View, CA

Eric Johnson wrote:

>I've just finished reading from the library John Vigors book "The Practical
>Mariners Book of Knowledge" and will definitely be buying this book to keep
>aboard. One of the things he talks about again and again is his 'black box
>theory' which goes something like this:
>
>There's an invisibile black box aboard your vessel. Every time you learn or
>perform an act of seamanship you add points into the box. Getting up and
>checking the anchor, making log entries, getting position fixes, whipping
>loose ends of lines, monitoring VHF16, reefing early, learning navigation,
>etc, all add points to the box. Heavy weather, reduced visibility, traffic,
>etc take points away from this black box.
>
>He goes an to explain there is no such thing as luck. A sailor who survives
>a heavy storm is described as 'lucky', but he survived because he had more
>points than the weather took away. The 'unlucky' sailor who capsized or
>needed outside assistance ran out of points.
>
>Its an interesting way of thinking about it.
>