"risk" is what the insurance companies are betting against, and in my frame
of reference is a measure of probability and loss. "High risk" can be
either low probability of loss combined with high cost if you do lose, or
low cost of loss with a high probability that a loss will occur. To
minimize risk, you minimize *both* the probability of loss and the cost if
the loss occurs.
You keep your boat in seaworth condition and tow a dinghy. You keep the
dinghy in seaworth condition and wear a PFD. You keep the PFD in seaworth
condition and attach a packet of shark repellant to it. (You attach a
bottle of tabasco to the shark repellant package <G>). For each possible
failure you minimize the probability, and provide a loss-preventive escape
if the failure does in fact happen.
That said, if we compare flying, climbing, and sailing, it seems to me that
the "safest" activity is that one for which we can establish the longest
chain of event-backup pairs. This depends on the physical situation
surrounding the activity and on our knowledge of the risks, probabilities,
and backups to be considered. That's why training works.
Over
-- dwf
-----Original Message-----
From: Bill Combs <ttursine@gnt.net>
To: james nolan <nolan_laboratories@email.msn.com>
Cc: West Wight Potter - Post <wwpotter@tscnet.com>
Date: Saturday, August 21, 1999 12:12
Subject: Re: afraid of risk
=====>snip<=====